Economic Confidence Index, January 2016

Economic confidence index decreased by 16.8%

The economic confidence index is a composite index that summarizes the evaluations, expectations and trends of consumers and producers regarding the general economic situation. The index consists of weighting the consumer confidence indicator and the normalized sub-indices of the seasonally adjusted manufacturing industry (real sector), services, retail trade and construction sectors. Detailed information can be found on the metadata page (http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1102).

Economic confidence index decreased by 16.8% in January compared to the previous month and decreased from 100.81 to 83.88. The decline in the economic confidence index stemmed from declines in services, real sector (manufacturing), consumer and construction confidence indices.

The services confidence index decreased by 6.6% in January compared to the previous month to 92.53. Real sector confidence index and consumer confidence index decreased by 2.7% compared to December and reached 105.90 and 71.62 in January, respectively. Construction confidence index decreased by 1.4% to 83.91.

Retail trade confidence index increased by 3.6% in January compared to the previous month and rose from 108.93 to 108.76.





The publication date of the next press release related to this subject is 29 February 2016.

DESCRIPTIONS

In the calculation of economic confidence index, sector weights are not directly applied to five confidence indicators; the weight of each sector is applied to the normalized sub-indices of the confidence index of that sector. Normalization is to make data of different scales comparable.

The weight of the consumer sector corresponds to four sub-indices of the consumer confidence index, the weight of the manufacturing industry to eight sub-indices of the real sector confidence index, the weight of the service sector to three sub-indices of the service sector trust, the weight of the retail trade sector to three sub-indices and the weight of the construction sector. It is applied to two sub-indices of the construction sector confidence index.

consumer confidence index from the index forming the economic confidence index, Turkey Statistical Institute and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cooperation conducted with the Consumer Tendency Survey results, the real sector (manufacturing industry) sentiment index by the Republic of Turkey Central Bank, services, retail trade and construction sector confidence indices TSI is calculated by.

The fact that the economic confidence index is greater than 100 indicates optimism about the general economic situation and the pessimism about the general economic situation indicates that it is less than 100.