September 2015 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI) has been published by October 5, 2015.

The monthly CPI published by TURKSTAT provides information on the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by urban households over time.


Table 1: Consumer Price Index and Change Rates by Main-Expenditure Groups

* Inflation change compared to the same month of the previous year

** Inflation change compared to the previous month of the same year

In September, Turkey (TR) Overall CPI index (Table 1) from the previous month (in August 2015) has increased by 263.11 percent increase to 0.89. The index increased by 7.95 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. In September (2015), the highest increase was seen in transportation and various goods and services groups with 1.93 percent, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages group with 1.24 percent and entertainment group with 1.16 percent. On the other hand, the highest decrease was seen in clothing and footwear group with 2.76 percent (negative).

The data in Table 1 gives information on the main expenditure groups and general indices and the growth rates (inflation) of these indices. However, the effect of the main expenditure groups on the average inflation rate will depend on the weight of these groups in the consumer basket.

Percentage increases in the main expenditure group indices are multiplied by their share in the consumer basket and their effects on average (CPI-based) inflation are given in Table 2. Turkey the largest impact on the overall increase in the average price ($ 0.30) comes from food and non-alcoholic beverages and health groups. On the other hand, the effect of clothing shoes group (0.20) was negative.

Table 2: Effect of Main-Expenditure Groups on Monthly Change in General Index (%), September 2015

Although CPI indices are mostly non-leading (lagged) variables, they do not provide important information about the future forecast, but the 0.37 percent increase in the index excluding unprocessed food and energy can be considered as core inflation and may give clues about the trend of inflation.

Among the special CPI aggregates calculated by TURKSTAT, the CPI index excluding unprocessed food and energy rose by 0.80 percent compared to the previous month. This index has increased by an average of 8.19 percent in the last 12 months and has taken the value of 251.47. While the general index rose by 0.89 percent, the index excluding special food and energy increased by 0.80 percent; inflation can be seen as a hint that this month is on an upward trend. Excluding unprocessed food and energy, the index increased by 8.21 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.

                                                                                             Table 3: Inflation change over the period 2004-2014                                                           

                                                                                              Table 4: 12-month inflation data compared to the previous month (monthly)